FIFA World Cup 2026 — model output
Probabilistic forecast for all 72 group-stage matches. Each row blends the model's calibrated output (Phase 1: Elo + form + isotonic-calibrated classifier) with bookmaker consensus from the-odds-api at a 50/50 weight. Knockout odds come from a 5,000-run Monte Carlo. Below: live scoring as matches finish.
Predictions →
72-row probability table. Filter by group, sort by date or probability. Per match: model-only, market consensus, blended, and xG.
Group grid →
Bracket-style A–L card layout. Each card shows the 6 group fixtures with picks plus an expected-points table for who advances.
Standings →
Projected final group table — points, goals for/against, organized by group. Prefilled from the model's scorelines and fully editable; edit a score and the table recomputes live.
Knockout →
Round-of-32 predictions for the real draw. Per match: H/D/A probabilities, expected goals, and an advance bar splitting the draw mass by win edge.
Odds movement →
Daily bookmaker consensus per match, devigged to probabilities. Sparkline + Δ track how the favoured outcome has firmed or drifted across snapshots.
Score live →
Type the actual score per match as it finishes; Brier and accuracy update without a page reload (HTMX).