Knockout predictions
The real knockout draw, predicted match-by-match. Each row blends the model (Elo + form, neutral venue) 50/50 with live bookmaker consensus. Knockouts can't end level, so the advance bar splits the 90-minute draw probability between the two sides in proportion to each one's win edge — the best cheap proxy for who survives extra time / penalties. Expected goals (xG) are the model's regulation-time estimate.
| Date | Match | P(home) | P(draw) | P(away) | xG | Advances | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | South Africa v Canada | 17.8% | 25.1% | 57.0% | 0.91–1.76 |
▶ Canada
|
blend |
| 2026-06-29 | Brazil v Japan | 51.6% | 24.7% | 23.6% | 1.78–0.94 |
▶ Brazil
|
blend |
| 2026-06-29 | Germany v Paraguay | 59.4% | 20.5% | 20.0% | 1.51–1.05 |
▶ Germany
|
blend |
| 2026-06-30 | France v Sweden | 70.9% | 20.2% | 8.8% | 2.42–0.84 |
▶ France
|
blend |
| 2026-06-30 | Ivory Coast v Norway | 24.7% | 29.3% | 46.0% | 0.93–1.49 |
▶ Norway
|
blend |
| 2026-06-30 | Netherlands v Morocco | 44.2% | 27.4% | 28.4% | 1.61–1.04 |
▶ Netherlands
|
blend |
| 2026-07-01 | Belgium v Senegal | 43.1% | 25.1% | 31.8% | 1.54–1.38 |
▶ Belgium
|
blend |
| 2026-07-01 | England v DR Congo | 69.4% | 20.2% | 10.5% | 1.95–0.73 |
▶ England
|
blend |
| 2026-07-01 | Mexico v Ecuador | 42.9% | 32.7% | 24.5% | 1.22–0.91 |
▶ Mexico
|
blend |
| 2026-07-02 | Portugal v Croatia | 49.8% | 24.2% | 26.0% | 1.52–1.15 |
▶ Portugal
|
blend |
| 2026-07-02 | Spain v Austria | 68.9% | 22.6% | 8.5% | 2.07–0.91 |
▶ Spain
|
blend |
| 2026-07-02 | United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina | 67.4% | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.90–0.75 |
▶ United States
|
blend |
| 2026-07-03 | Argentina v Cape Verde | 81.4% | 14.2% | 4.4% | 2.66–0.44 |
▶ Argentina
|
blend |
| 2026-07-03 | Australia v Egypt | 33.5% | 31.3% | 35.3% | 1.35–1.10 |
▶ Egypt
|
blend |
| 2026-07-03 | Switzerland v Algeria | 49.7% | 26.5% | 23.8% | 1.62–0.99 |
▶ Switzerland
|
blend |
| 2026-07-04 | Colombia v Ghana | 72.5% | 19.9% | 7.6% | 2.70–0.48 |
▶ Colombia
|
blend |